AFGHANISTAN AND THE TERROR THREAT IN CENTRAL ASIA
Abstract
Research Paper
DOI: 10.37458/ssj.5.1.9
A United Nations sanctions monitoring team, warned in a report in June 2023 that the Taliban “have not delivered on the counter-terrorism provisions” in the Doha Accords, the agreement that paved the way for the withdrawal of U.S. forces and two years after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan the country is again devolving into a hotbed of terrorism activity that is already beginning to affect the region.[i]
Central Asian states are deeply concerned about regional security and potential terrorist threats emanating from Afghanistan and remained on guard against violent extremist elements from Afghanistan crossing their borders or committing cross-border rocket attacks, as well as the potential threat posed by returning citizens who traveled to Iraq or Syria to fight with terrorist groups. [ii] Most of the Central Asian countries remained suspicious of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, but they adopted a pragmatic policy of strengthening the defense of their borders with Afghanistan on the one hand and negotiating with the Taliban regime on the other. Tajikistan’s primary concerns are with ISIS-K and Jamaat Ansarullah, which operates from Afghanistan and seeks to overthrow the Tajik government and to establish an Islamic emirate. [iii] Unlike Afghanistan’s other neighbors, which adopted cautious stances vis-à-vis the new rulers in Kabul, Dushanbe has been vocal in its criticism, describing the Taliban regime as a threat to regional stability and slamming it for being non-inclusive.[iv]
[i] Jef Seldan, Afghanistan Reemerging as a Terrorism Incubator, VOA, August 18, 2023. https://www.voanews.com/a/afghanistan-reemerging-as-a-terrorism-incubator-/7230546.html
[ii] Country Reports on Terrorism 2022, US department of state, Bureau of counter terrorism. https://www.state.gov/reports/country-reports-on-terrorism-2022/uzbekistan/
[iii] Ibid.
[iv] Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, Tajikistan and the Taliban: A Lone Voice in Central Asia, The Diplomat, December 11, 2023. https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/tajikistan-and-the-taliban-a-lone-voice-in-central-asia
References
Jef Seldan, Afghanistan Reemerging as a Terrorism Incubator, VOA, August 18, 2023. https://www.voanews.com/a/afghanistan-reemerging-as-a-terrorism-incubator-/7230546.html
Country Reports on Terrorism 2022, US department of state, Bureau of counter terrorism. https://www.state.gov/reports/country-reports-on-terrorism-2022/uzbekistan/
Ibid.
Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, Tajikistan and the Taliban: A Lone Voice in Central Asia, The Diplomat, December 11, 2023. https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/tajikistan-and-the-taliban-a-lone-voice-in-central-asia
Taliban say no al Qaeda or ISIS in Afghanistan, Reuters, September 21, 2021. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taliban-say-no-al-qaeda-or-isis-afghanistan-2021-09-21/
Country Reports on Terrorism 2022, US department of state, Bureau of counter terrorism. https://www.state.gov/reports/country-reports-on-terrorism-2022/uzbekistan/
Ibid.
Ibid.
Explainer: Can the Taliban suppress the potent ISIS threat in Afghanistan? Al Arabiya, October 12, 2021. https://english.alarabiya.net/features/2021/10/12/Explainer-Can-the-Taliban-suppress-the-potent-ISIS-threat-in-Afghanistan-
Jennifer Bell, The Taliban and ISIS: A history of their fallout, Al Arabiya, September 20, 2021. https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2021/09/20/The-Taliban-and-ISIS-A-history-of-their-fallout
The Taliban and Isis: Relationship and difference between them explained and what it means for Afghanistan, Inews, August 30, 2021. https://ict.org.il/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Islamic-State-versus-the-Islamic-Emirate.pdf
Bruce Golding, What is ISIS-K? What to know about the terrorist group in Afghanistan, New York Post, August 26, 2021. https://ict.org.il/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Islamic-State-versus-the-Islamic-Emirate.pdf
Sayed Jalal Shajjan, How IS-K's resurgence in Afghanistan threatens the Taliban's grip on power, November15, 2021. https://www.newarab.com/analysis/how-ks-resurgence-threatens-talibans-grip-power
By 2020, ISIS-K’s estimated membership was reduced to between 1,500 and 2,200.
Bruce Golding, What is ISIS-K? What to know about the terrorist group in Afghanistan, New York Post, August 26, 2021. https://ict.org.il/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Islamic-State-versus-the-Islamic-Emirate.pdf
Taliban Say No al-Qaeda or ISIS in Afghanistan, Reuters, September 21, 2021. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taliban-say-no-al-qaeda-or-isis-afghanistan-2021-09-21/
Sudha Ramachandran, Tajikistan Faces Threat from Tajik Taliban, The Central Asia – Caucasus analyst, March 27, 2023. https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13750-tajikistan-faces-threat-from-tajik-taliban.html
Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, Tajikistan and the Taliban: A Lone Voice in Central Asia, The Diplomat, December 11, 2023. https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/tajikistan-and-the-taliban-a-lone-voice-in-central-asia
Ibid.
Sudha Ramachandran, Tajikistan Faces Threat from Tajik Taliban, The Central Asia – Caucasus analyst, March 27, 2023. https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13750-tajikistan-faces-threat-from-tajik-taliban.html
Country Reports on Terrorism 2022, US department of state, Bureau of counter terrorism. https://www.state.gov/reports/country-reports-on-terrorism-2022/uzbekistan/
Uran Botobekov, Understanding Jamaat Ansarullah: Ideological Shifts and Objectives, The Khorasn diary, November 06,2023. https://thekhorasandiary.com/en/2023/11/06/understanding-jamaat-ansarullah-ideological-shifts-and-objectives
John C. Daly, Rocket Attacks on Tajikistan and Uzbekistan Undermine Taliban Security Claims, Jamestown foundation, Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 19 Issue: 116, August 1, 2022. https://jamestown.org/program/rocket-attacks-on-tajikistan-and-uzbekistan-undermine-taliban-security-claims/
Uran Botobekov, Understanding Jamaat Ansarullah: Ideological Shifts and Objectives, The Khorasn diary, November 06,2023. https://thekhorasandiary.com/en/2023/11/06/understanding-jamaat-ansarullah-ideological-shifts-and-objectives
Ibid.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Rizwan Shah,The Emergence of Tehrik-e-Taliban Tajikistan (TTT): A New Security Challenge in Northern Afghanistan, BNN, September 21, 2023 . https://bnnbreaking.com/world/afghanistan/the-emergence-of-tehrik-e-taliban-tajikistan-ttt-a-new-security-challenge-in-northern-afghanistan/
Sudha Ramachandran, Tajikistan Faces Threat from Tajik Taliban, The Central Asia – Caucasus analyst, March 27, 2023. https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13750-tajikistan-faces-threat-from-tajik-taliban.html
Rizwan Shah, The Emergence of Tehrik-e-Taliban Tajikistan (TTT): A New Security Challenge in Northern Afghanistan, BNN, September 21, 2023. https://bnnbreaking.com/world/afghanistan/the-emergence-of-tehrik-e-taliban-tajikistan-ttt-a-new-security-challenge-in-northern-afghanistan/l
Sudha Ramachandran, Tajikistan Faces Threat from Tajik Taliban, The Central Asia – Caucasus analyst, March 27, 2023. https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13750-tajikistan-faces-threat-from-tajik-taliban.html
Carlotta Gall and Adam Nossiter, Budding Resistance to the Taliban Faces Long Odds, The New York Times, September 17, 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/25/world/asia/panjshir-valley-ahmad-massoud.html
Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, Tajikistan and the Taliban: A Lone Voice in Central Asia, The Diplomat, December 11, 2023. https://thediplomat.com/2023/12/tajikistan-and-the-taliban-a-lone-voice-in-central-asia
Country Reports on Terrorism 2022, US department of state, Bureau of counter terrorism. https://www.state.gov/reports/country-reports-on-terrorism-2022/uzbekistan/
TGA0754 – Taliban Weapons Documented in Use by Jamaat Ansarullah, Tajikistan, Terrorgence global, September 22, 2023. https://terrogence-global.com/2023/09/tga0754-taliban-weapons-documented-in-use-by-jamaat-ansarullah-tajikistan/
Afghanistan-based extremists spark terror fears in Central Asia, asia.nikkei ,June 10, 2023. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Terrorism/Afghanistan-based-extremists-spark-terror-fears-in-Central-Asia
Uran Botobekov, Understanding Jamaat Ansarullah: Ideological Shifts and Objectives, The Khorasn diary, November 06,2023. https://thekhorasandiary.com/en/2023/11/06/understanding-jamaat-ansarullah-ideological-shifts-and-objectives
Country Reports on Terrorism 2022, US department of state, Bureau of counter terrorism. https://www.state.gov/reports/country-reports-on-terrorism-2022/uzbekistan/
Islamic State claims rockets fired from Afghanistan into Tajikistan, The economic times, May 8, 2022. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/islamic-state-claims-rockets-fired-from-afghanistan-into-tajikistan/articleshow/91420400.cms
John C. Daly, Rocket Attacks on Tajikistan and Uzbekistan Undermine Taliban Security Claims, Jamestown foundation, Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 19 Issue: 116, August 1, 2022. https://jamestown.org/program/rocket-attacks-on-tajikistan-and-uzbekistan-undermine-taliban-security-claims/
Sudha Ramachandran, Tajikistan Faces Threat from Tajik Taliban, The Central Asia – Caucasus analyst, March 27, 2023. https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13750-tajikistan-faces-threat-from-tajik-taliban.html
John C. Daly, Rocket Attacks on Tajikistan and Uzbekistan Undermine Taliban Security Claims, Jamestown foundation, Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 19 Issue: 116, August 1, 2022. https://jamestown.org/program/rocket-attacks-on-tajikistan-and-uzbekistan-undermine-taliban-security-claims/
Country Reports on Terrorism 2022, US department of state, Bureau of counter terrorism. https://www.state.gov/reports/country-reports-on-terrorism-2022/uzbekistan/
Ibid.
Zia Ur Rehman, ISIS-K threat to Uzbek railway dream opens doors for Taliban, asia. nikkei, July 27, 2022. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/ISIS-K-threat-to-Uzbek-railway-dream-opens-doors-for-Taliban
Jef Seldan, Afghanistan Reemerging as a Terrorism Incubator, VOA, August 18, 2023. https://www.voanews.com/a/afghanistan-reemerging-as-a-terrorism-incubator-/7230546.html
Zia Ur Rehman, ISIS-K threat to Uzbek railway dream opens doors for Taliban, asia. nikkei, July 27, 2022. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/ISIS-K-threat-to-Uzbek-railway-dream-opens-doors-for-Taliban
United Nations Security Council. https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/1267/aq_sanctions_list/summaries/entity/islamic-jihad-group
Zia Ur Rehman, ISIS-K threat to Uzbek railway dream opens doors for Taliban, asia. nikkei, July 27, 2022. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/ISIS-K-threat-to-Uzbek-railway-dream-opens-doors-for-Taliban
Ibid.
United Nations Security Council. https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/khatiba-al-tawhid-wal-jihad-ktj
Jef Seldan, Afghanistan Reemerging as a Terrorism Incubator, VOA, August 18, 2023. https://www.voanews.com/a/afghanistan-reemerging-as-a-terrorism-incubator-/7230546.html
United Nations Security Council. https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/khatiba-al-tawhid-wal-jihad-ktj
Jef Seldan, Afghanistan Reemerging as a Terrorism Incubator, VOA, August 18, 2023. https://www.voanews.com/a/afghanistan-reemerging-as-a-terrorism-incubator-/7230546.html
Gul Ayzad, Islamic State Khorasan Claims Rocket Attack on Uzbekistan, VOA, April 18, 2022. https://www.voanews.com/a/islamic-state-khorasan-claims-rocket-attack-on-uzbekistan-/6534866.html
John C. Daly, Rocket Attacks on Tajikistan and Uzbekistan Undermine Taliban Security Claims, Jamestown foundation, Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 19 Issue: 116, August 1, 2022. https://jamestown.org/program/rocket-attacks-on-tajikistan-and-uzbekistan-undermine-taliban-security-claims/
Afghanistan-based extremists spark terror fears in Central Asia, asia.nikkei ,June 10, 2023. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Terrorism/Afghanistan-based-extremists-spark-terror-fears-in-Central-Asia
Jef Seldan, Afghanistan Reemerging as a Terrorism Incubator, VOA, August 18, 2023. https://www.voanews.com/a/afghanistan-reemerging-as-a-terrorism-incubator-/7230546.html
© 2020 Security Science Journal. All rights reserved
