THE RESTRAINS ON EGYPT'S NATIONAL SECURITY TOWARDS THE GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM (GERD)

Abstract

Research Paper

DOI: https://doi.org/10.37458/ssj.3.1.3

Egypt regards the Nile as a vital "Life Line". As such, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam poses a significant threat to its national security, and thus, Egypt has to arrive at the most effective decision in order to remove this threat. Egypt embarked on a global diplomatic pressure designated to influence Ethiopia, backed by signals of relevant contributive acquisitions relevant to the Egyptian army's buildup: E.g., 30 Rafale jests from France in 2021 (following a former acquisition of 24 jets in 2015), 50 Mig-29Ms fighter jets in 2015 or 24 Sukhoi Su-35 in 2018, from Russia.

This study finds that albeit the noted signals of massive quality acquisitions from new sponsors such as France or Russia due to a decrease of US armament  from 47 percent of Egypt's arms imports between 2009-2014, to 14 percent between 2015-2020, due to sanctions by President Obama, following the deposing of President Morsi in 2013, the Egyptian army is bounded by military and economic restrains, effecting an arrival to efficient operative decisions in order to embark on a military response versus Ethiopia, should the diplomatic prism would not achieve its goal, of removing the potential threat on the Nile water flow. The identity of army buildup arms suppliers, weapons and markets, effects significantly the noted decision-making process.