STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTY AND NORMATIVE CONTESTATION IN THE INDO-PACIFIC: RETHINKING SECURITY BEYOND ALLIANCE-CENTERED MODELS

Baha' Aldeen Raed Suliman Almomani

Baha' Aldeen Raed Suliman Almomani Institute for National and International Security (INIS)

Keywords: Indo-Pacific security, security dilemmas, strategic narratives, middle powers, ontological security, norm localization, strategic autonomy

Abstract

Review Paper

DOI: https://doi.org/10.37458/ssj.7.1.2

This study examines how military-centered frameworks alone cannot fully capture the security of the Indo-Pacific; as a result, perception, strategic narratives, and ethical considerations are incorporated as the primary factors that determine regional order. The study examines how global power rivalry creates strategic and interpretive security dilemmas, particularly for Southeast Asian and East Asian states seeking to balance deterrence, alignment, and strategic autonomy, through the lens of the Indo-Pacific as a contested security area. To critically examine contemporary regional security practices and scholarship, the study, grounded in qualitative and theory-driven methods, integrates perspectives from defensive realism, ontological security theory, and norm localization. The study's findings indicate that instability in the Indo-Pacific is sustained not only by material military competition but also by strategic ambiguity, hybrid forms of rivalry, and localized interpretations of threat and legitimacy. The middle powers play a critical role through strategies that combine autonomy, cooperation, and deterrence. Furthermore, it is suggested that the region's natural development occurs gradually through local adaptation processes as opposed to the implementation of uniform or externally imposed standards, which explains the longevity of adaptable and consensus-oriented institutional arrangements. The study concludes that institutional innovation, communication, and ethical restraint should be used in conjunction with traditional deterrence techniques to maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific. This is because ignoring the material or ideational aspects of security will prolong the long-term instability problem in one of the world's most strategically important areas.

References

Acharya, A. (1991). Association of Southeast Asian Nations: Security community or defence community? Pacific Affairs, 64(2), 159–178. https://doi.org/10.2307/2759850

Acharya, A. (1993). A new regional order in Southeast Asia: ASEAN in the post–Cold War era (Adelphi Paper No. 279). International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Acharya, A. (1997a). Ideas, identity, and institution-building: From the "ASEAN Way" to the "Asia-Pacific Way." The Pacific Review, 10(3), 319–346. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512749708719226

Acharya, A. (1997b). Sovereignty, non-intervention, and regionalism (CANCAPS Paper No. 15). Canadian Consortium on Asia Pacific Security, York University.

Acharya, A. (2001). Constructing a security community in Southeast Asia: ASEAN and the problem of regional order. Routledge.

Acharya, A. (2004). How ideas spread: Whose norms matter? Norm localization and institutional change. Asian Regionalism, International Organization, 58(2), 239–275. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818304582024

Aggarwal, V. K. (1998). Analyzing institutional transformation in the Asia-Pacific. In V. K. Aggarwal & C. E. Morrison (Eds.), Asia-Pacific crossroads: Regime creation and the future of APEC (pp. 23–61). Macmillan.

Alatas, A. (1992, October 28). The emerging security architecture in East Asia and the Pacific—An ASEAN perspective [Lecture]. National University of Singapore.

Appadurai, A. (1996). Modernity at large: Cultural dimensions of globalization. University of Minnesota Press.

Badawi, A. (1998, July 24). Opening statement of the 31st ASEAN Ministerial Meeting. ASEAN Secretariat.

Ball, D. (1993). Strategic culture in the Asia-Pacific region. Security Studies, 3(1), 44–74. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636419309347549

Beeson, M., & Lee-Brown, T. (2021). Regionalism for realists? The evolution of the Indo-Pacific. Chinese Political Science Review, 6, 167–186. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41111-020-00163-0

Bitzinger, R. A. (2010). A new arms race? Explaining recent Southeast Asian military acquisitions. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 32(1), 50–69.

Blair, D. C., & Hanley Jr., J. T. (2001). From wheels to webs: Reconstructing Asia-Pacific security arrangements. Washington Quarterly, 24(1), 5–17. https://doi.org/10.1162/016366001561393

Brewster, D. (2024). Rethinking the Indo-Pacific: Maritime strategy and regional order. Oxford University Press.

Callahan, W. (2016). China's 'Asia Dream': The Belt Road Initiative and the new regional order. Asian Journal of Comparative Politics, 1(3), 226–243.

Campbell, K., & Ratner, E. (2024). U.S.-China strategic competition and the future of Indo-Pacific order. Foreign Affairs, 103(2), 45–58.

Chauhdry, K., Aqib, S., & Wassan, D. (2025). Geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific: Strategic competition, alliances, and regional security. Research Journal for Social Affairs, 3, 503–520. https://doi.org/10.71317/RJSA.003.05.0345

Cheung, T. M. (2014). Introduction. In T. M. Cheung (Ed.), Forging China's military might: A new framework for assessing innovation (pp. 1–15). Johns Hopkins University Press.

Cordesman, A. H., Hess, A., & Yarosh, N. (2013). Chinese military modernization and force development. Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Cortell, A. P., & Davis, J. W., Jr. (2000). Understanding the domestic impact of international norms: A research agenda. International Studies Review, 2(1), 65–87. https://doi.org/10.1111/1521-9488.00184

Davidson, J. (2014). The US "Pivot to Asia." American Journal of Chinese Studies, 21, 77–82. https://www.jstor.org/stable/44289339

Erickson, A. S. (2012). China's modernization of its naval and air power capabilities. In A. Tellis & T. Tanner (Eds.), Strategic Asia 2012–13: China's military challenge (pp. 60–125). National Bureau of Asian Research.

Ferguson, N. (2024). The semiconductor wars: Technology, security, and power. Journal of Strategic Studies, 47(1), 77–94.

Finnemore, M., & Sikkink, K. (1998). International norm dynamics and political change. International Organization, 52(4), 887–917. https://doi.org/10.1162/002081898550789

Friedberg, A. (2012). A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia. Choice Reviews Online, 49(07), 49–4128. https://doi.org/10.5860/choice.49-4128

Ignatieff, M. (1998). The warrior's honor: Ethnic war and the modern conscience. Henry Holt.

Karmazin, A., Kolmaš, M., & Qiao-Franco, G. (2025). Power, perception, and security dilemmas in the Indo-Pacific: Global competition and regional strategic uncertainty. In Understanding International Relations in the Indo-Pacific (pp. 82–115). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003606031-4

Khan, M. (2025). The Indo-Pacific security dilemma: US–China competition and its effect on the region. In Global geopolitical dynamics in Eurasia (pp. 189–220). IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/979-8-3373-2444-9.ch008

Korolev, A. (2023). Transition from hedging to balancing in Australia's China policy: Theoretical and empirical explorations. Australian Journal of International Affairs, 77(5), 548–568. https://doi.org/10.1080/10357718.2023.2222140

Kumar, R. (2024). Economic centrality and geopolitical competition in the Indo-Pacific. Journal of Global Economic Studies, 18(2), 55–71.

Kwon, J. (2020). When the kangaroo encounters the flying dragon: The growth of balancing elements in Australia's China policy. Pacific Focus, 35(3), 491–529. https://doi.org/10.1111/pafo.12163

Lee, C.-M., & Pempel, T. J. (2012). The Northeast Asian security complex: History, power, and strategic choices. In C.-M. Lee & T. J. Pempel (Eds.), Security cooperation in Northeast Asia: Architecture and beyond (pp. 3–21). Routledge.

Li, L. (2025). Strategic anxiety and security dilemma in the Indo-Pacific: A defensive realist analysis of Australia–China relations. Journal of Sociology and Ethnology, 7(3). Clausius Scientific Press. https://doi.org/10.23977/jsoce.2025.070307

Panda, J. P. (2024). Mapping Indo-Pacific geopolitics: Narratives and responses. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 11(1), 22–41.

Pempel, T. J. (2012). Security architecture in Northeast Asia: Projections from the rearview mirror. In C.-M. Lee & T. J. Pempel (Eds.), Security cooperation in Northeast Asia: Architecture and beyond (pp. 212–232). Routledge.

Rafique, M. (2025). Digital Silk Road and Indo-Pacific cyber competition. Journal of Cyber Policy, 10(1), 14–30.

Raska, M. (2019). Strategic competition and future conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region. Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, 2(2), 83–99.

Rolland, N. (2024). China's Belt and Road Initiative and the reshaping of the Asian order. Asian Affairs, 55(2), 150–168.

Saeed, A., Khurshid, S., & Qureshi, S. (2025). The Sino–US strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region: Implications for regional actors. Social Sciences Spectrum, 4, 151–162. https://doi.org/10.71085/sss.04.04.371

Smith, S. (2025). Balancing behavior in the Indo-Pacific: Japan, India, and Australia. International Security Review, 29(1), 33–57.

Waqar, A., & Liaqat, B. (2025). Great-power competition in the Indo-Pacific: Shifting alignments and strategic calculations. Global Foreign Policies Review, 8, 1–—. https://doi.org/10.31703/gfpr.2025(VIII-IV).01

Waqar, A., Nawaz, A., & Liaqat, B. B. (2025). Great-power competition in the Indo-Pacific: Shifting alignments and strategic calculations. Global Foreign Policies Review, 8(4), 1. https://doi.org/10.31703/gfpr.2025(viii-iv).01

Wiseman, G. (2002). Concepts of non-provocative defence: Ideas and practices in international security. Palgrave Macmillan.

Wolpe, B. (2023). Trump's Australia: How Trumpism changed Australia and the shocking consequences for us of a second term. Allen & Unwin.

Wolters, O. W. (1982/1999). History, culture, and region in Southeast Asian perspectives. Cornell University Southeast Asia Program; Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

Zelikow, P. (1992). The new concert of Europe. Survival, 34(2), 12–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396339208442699

Zhang, B. (2021). From defensive toward offensive realism: Strategic competition and continuities in the United States' China policy. Journal of Contemporary China, 31(137), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2021.2010885

Zhu, F. (2009). An emerging trend in East Asia: Military budget increases and their impact. Asian Perspective, 33(4), 17–45.