THE WAR IN UKRAINE: NUCLEAR WAR SCENARIOS  AND NORMAL ACCIDENT THEORY

Lasha  Tchantouridze

Lasha Tchantouridze Professor, Director of the graduate programs in Diplomacy and International Relations, Norwich University – the Military College of Vermont, Northfield, VT 05641, U.S.A.

Keywords: Nuclear war, nuclear weapons, Normal Accident Theory, NAT, Russia, war in Ukraine

Abstract

Research Paper

DOI: 10.37458/ssj.3.2.5

Russia started its nuclear war threats with the commencement of its war in Ukraine. In the current case of the war in Ukraine, the most critical question is whether the Russian Federation, the aggressor in this war, would use nuclear weapons. The purpose of this brief paper is to examine the scenarios that are available to Russia to carry out its threat. The theoretical framework employed here is that of Normal Accident Theory (NAT), one of the most prominent theories of catastrophe. Normal Accident Theory explains how Moscow's use of nuclear weapons can trigger a global catastrophe that could bring the international system down. There are scenarios according to which the decisions that may result in the destruction of the international system may cascade fast, and there are scenarios in which such cascading events may be avoided or delayed.

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